Expecting the unexpected is a helpful skill when the world is zigzagging and financial markets are in turmoil. Who would have thought that large-cap deals would pick up despite a new war — and now fragile ceasefire — in the Middle East, despite skyrocketing energy prices, jumping inflation, and despite AI disruption threatening an entire vintage of technology investments?
9fin’s most recent data shows that median deal size in Q1 26 climbed quarter-over-quarter to €87m versus €55m in Q4 25, even though larger transactions typically bear the brunt of macro uncertainty. That is a promising signal, even as overall private credit activity declined over the same period, with European deal count falling to 228 in Q1 26, down from 298 deals in Q4 25 (see chart below).
Ares was once again in pole position with 26 deals in Q1 26, while Apollo overtook CVI by one deal to secure second place, and the Warsaw-based firm sitting in third for the quarter, according to our new European private credit league tables.
Source: 9fin data
Jumbo deals are back
Median deal size was lifted by several large-cap deals in Q1 26, and recent deal flow hints dealmakers continue...
