“The sick man of Europe” diagnosis pops up frequently these days – just ask the UK, Germany, and Italy. Now the focus is on France.
Surging spreads between OATs and European peers underline how investors are repricing French political risk. Both extremes of the political spectrum (Mélenchon versus Le Pen)are loud amid a shrinking centre, given President Emmanuel Macron’s May 2027 exit.
This – paired with riots, fiscal worries, and expectations of a weaker French government if no legislative majority is won – is making LevFin buysiders cautious. Some investors are completely passing on French deals until the noise settles.
This is already causing pulled deals, including those already in the market (like Circet)and also those yet to be launched to investors (like Idemia).
It increases existing anxiety around French LevFin credits. 9fin outlined this in our 2025 report, covering high-yield market dynamics and sectors most exposed.
But, as always, opportunities are there for those willing to look past headlines and underwrite amid volatility.
Will it Gaul work out?
“We are avoiding anything French at the moment; the contagion from OATs is the main fear; also the political environment with riots feels...
